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Friday, February 27, 2009

Unraveling The Stock Market Puzzle

I have been hunting around for the best places to invest my money for some years now. You see, I'm not an impulsive person. If anything, I am a little bit obsessive compulsive. I'm moreover a PhD. level student of mathematics. As such, I am interested in the mathematical reasons that underlie investment decisions. I'm also as interested in the mathematical basis behind stock market trends as I am with actually making money from them. Don't get me wrong, once I figure out what the best investments actually are, even if that means high risk stocks and shares, I will go out and make a killing. So it's not that I'm not that interested in making money, it is just that I have this innate desire to discover the underpinnings of the financial products that I am looking at, before I choose to invest in them. It's just the way my mind functions.

For sure, there is no one best spot to invest forever, however there are several reasonable ones. The finest place to invest your money depends on what you're aiming to do. You may perhaps invest in stocks for a variety of assorted reasons. And, if you do happen to get a hot tip, it might even be very sensible to invest in stocks. Though, I ought to point out that if you received some of those email hot tips that appear in a spam-like way in your inbox, just ignore them. The people who've sent them have only bought that stock themselves and are trying to get others to buy it too, after them, so that the share price rises and they can make a quick buck.

Anyway, what few people understand regarding the stock market is that the win-it-all or lose-it-all phenomenon is much rarer than the media makes it seem. Most people who invest in the stock market actually are fairly careful. They've usually placed a lot of cash into a stock, and are in it for the long term. They don't want to be reckless with their futures, so they make conservative investments.

My investigation of where are best places to invest demands me to come up with a definition of what "best" actually means. Since I'm a mathematician, I undertake to define it mathematically. The top spots to invest must possess a mishmash of characteristics. They must provide an investment opportunity that is money-making but, at the same time, as safe as possible. Usually, these attributes work in opposition.

For example, day trading on the stock market is extremely profitable if done right, but also really dangerous. Investing in land, on the other hand, may perhaps take a great deal longer to turn a profit however it tends to be much less risky. Hence, the overall best places to invest are a bit difficult to find. It is hard to find something that combines all of the favorable ingredients equally.

The most important thing to figure out is that the best spots to invest actually change from day to day. One week, the securities market may be in top condition. The next week, it might be the real-estate market. The finest places to invest money in the short-term change weekly, sometimes daily. And even the value of long term investments is subject to frequent change. It has to be said that if you want to invest your money wisely, you really need to do your homework.

You Can Reduce Your Investment Risk

Ideally, investors try to buy a stock when the price has reached a support level (a level at which the price is as low as it will go) and sell the stock when it hits a resistance level (a level at which the price is as high as it will go). This is easier said than done. Most investors end up missing out on a continual rise by waiting for a stock to plummet first, or sell way to early by underestimating how high the price will go. In this article, we will focus on the two most popular strategies that you can use to invest without having to worry about market timing.

Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investing technique intended to reduce exposure to risk associated with making a single large purchase. According to this technique, shares of stock are purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance. The theory is that this will lead to greater returns overall, since smaller numbers of shares will be bought when the cost is high, while larger number of shares will be bought while the cost is low.

An example of DCA would be as follows: If I want to buy 1,200 shares of IBM stock using DCA, then I might decide to purchase 400 shares of IBM per month over the course of the next three months. Hypothetically, during month one, the price of IBM may be $105 per share, and then it might drop to $95 per share during month two, and then rise to $100 during month three. If I bought all 1,200 shares during month one, I would have cost me $105 per share. But, by spreading the purchase over a three month period, I managed to buy IBM at an average price of $100 per share.

The primary drawback of using DCA is that you may not be maximizing your overall return. If there is an indication that a certain stock is currently undervalued and might shoot up in price, you would actually make less money using DCA than if you had bought all the shares in the beginning before the price skyrocketed. So, it is not always a winning strategy to spread your purchases over a period of time.

Value averaging, also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique of adding to an investment portfolio to provide greater return than similar methods such as dollar cost averaging and random investment. With the method, investors contribute to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance increases by a set amount, regardless of market fluctuations. As a result, in periods of market declines, the investor contributes more money, while in periods of market climbs, the investor contributes less.

Here is an example of DVA: I want to invest in Yahoo using DVA. For the sake of argument, we will say that Yahoo is currently $10 per share. I determine that the value of the amount I am going to invest over the course of 1 year will rise, on average, $1,000 each quarter as I make additional investments. If I use DVA, I invest $1,000 to start. If, at the end of the first quarter, the share price has risen to $15 per share, that means that the value of my investment is now $1,500, which means I will only have to invest $500 at the start of the second quarter in order to bring the total amount of my investment for the first and second quarter to $2,000. So, I am investing less as the stock price increases.

Dollar value averaging usually works better than cost averaging because value averaging results in less money being invested as the stock price goes up, whereas with cost averaging you continue to invest the same number of dollars regardless of the share price. But, neither of these strategies are necessarily full-proof. Make sure you know something about the company you are going to invest in before you go forward.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Real Estate Information

Real estate is a legal term that encompasses land along with anything permanently affixed to the land, such as buildings. Real estate is often considered synonymous with real property (also sometimes called realty), in contrast with personal property, chattel, or personalty. However, for technical purposes, some people prefer to distinguish real estate, referring to the land and fixtures themselves, from real property, referring to ownership rights over real estate. The terms real estate and real property are used primarily in common law, while civil law jurisdictions refer instead to immovable property.

In spite of the name, real estate has no connection with the concept of reality (in other words, the law does not consider real property more "real" than personal property). It derives instead from the feudal principle that in a monarchy, all land was considered the property of the king. Thus originally the term real estate was equivalent to "royal estate", real originating from the French royale, as it was the French-speaking Normans who introduced feudalism to England and thus to the English language; cognate to Spanish real.

With the development of private property ownership, real estate has become a major area of business. Purchasing real estate requires a significant investment, and each parcel of land has unique characteristics, so the real estate industry has evolved into several distinct fields. Specialists are often called on to valuate real estate and facilitate transactions. Some kinds of real estate businesses include:

Appraisal - Professional valuation services

Brokerages - Assisting buyers and sellers in transactions

Development - Improving land for use by adding or replacing buildings

Property management - Managing a property for its owner(s)

Relocation services - Relocating people or business to different country

Within each field, a business may specialize in a particular type of real estate, such as residential, commercial, or industrial property. In addition, almost all construction business effectively has a connection to real estate.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Residential Real Estate in Louisiana

Louisiana is a state rich in cultural heritage and fine architectural traditions hearkening back to the days of its early French residents.

Residential real estate in Louisiana, especially in it Gulf cities like New Orleans, has always been highly desirable because of its cultural heritage as well as its proximity to great Jazz music, annual Mardi Gras celebrations, and life in friendly, traditional neighborhoods.

Yet the wild and unruly Hurricanes Rita and Katrina ripped through the state in 2005, leaving much of the real estate underwater, caved in, or otherwise destroyed. Rebuilding efforts have been slow but they are still moving along.

Soon, the state will get a huge shot in the arm through a grant from the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP), under the roof of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, the state is eligible to receive $38 million in recovery funds offered through HUD's Community Development Block Grant.

The money will go towards curbing foreclosures in the hardest hit regions and recreating a stable housing market in Louisiana. The state would receive $34 million to aid troubled residential real estate owners, while both Baton Rouge and New Orleans would get $2 million apiece to help correct the real estate markets there.

With this valuable injection of real estate-targeted funds, the Louisiana government can buy up foreclosed properties that are or may become abandoned and damaged. The state would then redevelop those residential real estate properties and put them up for sale, taking responsibility for the upkeep of them until they find new owners.

Foreclosed homes can often create a myriad of problems for surrounding neighbors, as abandoned properties often invite vagrants, increased crime activity, and falling property values for nearby homes.

The state can also choose to use the grant money to completely demolish existing foreclosed and abandoned real estate buildings or the government officials can put it towards down payment and closing cost assistance for buyers with less than 120 percent of the state or city's median income. This would help make financing available to possible buyers in order to decrease the inventory of foreclosed homes on the market.

As most states around the country have been slammed with rising foreclosures rates due to the housing market crash, a slower economy, and the national credit crunch, HUD has allocated a total of $3.92 billion to be distributed to various states based on their need.

The rate of foreclosure in Louisiana and in Baton Rouge is at 3.9 percent, which is classified as a medium rate, but New Orleans has a 4.4 percent foreclosure rate, a figure that reaches into high territory.

"The housing crisis is one plaguing neighborhoods in states across our country," said U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu. "Here in Louisiana, we have the added challenge of rebuilding properties that have been destroyed by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and more recently Gustav and Ike. Homes in Louisiana have been abandoned because the after effects of hurricane after hurricane have left them uninhabitable. I am pleased that this funding will help us uplift neighborhoods across the state and restore value to struggling properties."

Ten Reasons to Love Austin Texas

Housing is Very Affordable - One of the first reasons why you should take a look at making an Austin move, or what may help you decide that you should move, is that housing is very affordable both in Austin and its suburbs. In fact, compared to most cities in the US, you will get excellent houses with three to four bedrooms for anywhere between the high $100,000's to low $300,000s which is practically unheard of near any other large city in America.

Low unemployment rate - With the unemployment rate rising all over America, and the national average reaching a new high of 6.1%, it is amazing that Austin, Texas has an unemployment rate of just 4.5%. What is even more impressive is that unlike the national average, the unemployment rate in Austin has actually been declining the last few years instead of rising, and is expected to continue to drop.

Weird eccentric spirit - Most places would hate to be labeled weird and eccentric, but people in Austin embrace the label even going as far as to unofficially make their motto "Keep Austin weird." It is not that people are actually odd in Austin, simply that independent and innovative thinking is embraced, therefore thinking outside the box and being yourself is highly valued throughout Austin.

Trail of lights - If you like the Christmas spirit, than you will love the annual Trail of Lights exhibit/celebration that is set up in Zilker Park each December. Over 300,000 strings of lights are strung throughout the park alongside props with over a mile of different scenes for viewers to walk by and see. Or for those from out of town or simply sick of walking a miniature train can take you on a guided tour through the festivities.

Music scene - The individualistic spirit of Austin comes out in full force throughout the burgeoning Austin music scene. In fact, Austin is quickly becoming the actual live music capital of the world, the official label the city has placed on itself. Both the annual South by Southwest and the Austin limits music festival draw in thousands of concert goers and major label bands each year, alongside many local and independent acts.

Young hipster scene - Made possible in part by the nearby University of Texas, in part because of the independent thinking of residents, and partially from the music scene, there is quite a young fresh hipster scene alive and flourishing in Austin.

Organic stores and living - People in Austin value fair trade and organic natural stores, if you like the idea of eating healthy, you will not find an easier way to embrace your values than in activist minded Austin. Austin is home to Whole Foods Market corporate office.

Great education system - It is true, the educational culture of Austin is so excellent with many colleges and universities located in the Austin area that students often dream of Austin admittance. Even at the elementary level people compete to live in some of the best school districts so their child is guaranteed enrollment at some of the notable schools.

Weather - While weather patterns are unpredictable in Austin, outside of rain; for the most part the temperatures never drop below freezing, which means you will not get too much wear out of your winter coat, even in the winter!

Small community in a large city - The Austin, Texas metropolitan area is very diverse and wide offering you many affordable communities to live in that offer you the small town feel while still in close proximity to a very large city scene.

What is Hot and Not in Real Estate

Whether you are thinking about listing your home or considering the purchase of a foreclosure or condo while the prices are right, find out what's hot and what's not in Tampa real estate.

What's Hot

Personal Spa's & Big Bathrooms. As the economy tightens, people are spending less on spa treatment but still seeking stress relief. The solution is to create a personal retreat right in your very own home. Big bathrooms with personal spa accessories are in high demand but forget unsanitary water jets, today's big soaking tubs use sanitary bubble jets combined with chroma-therapy for an unforgettable experience. Comfort toilets, LED lighting, towel warmers and dry saunas are also high demand luxuries that feel like a million but don't necessarily cost a lot.

Eco-Friendly Yards. Fruit trees are back big-time as are low maintenance lawns. Xeriscaping with native shrubs and trees reduces water requirements and pesticides, fertilizers and other harmful chemicals. Large trees that help shade the house in summer (and reduce electric bills) are also in high demand...with the added benefit of making great natural compost. Outdoor sanctuaries that combine easy to maintain gardens with fire-pits, water and entertaining areas are rapidly displacing show-piece lawns.

Green Building Supplies. Tampa real estate has the advantage of year round wonderful weather so avoid toxic chemicals and expensive carpet replacement by purchasing bamboo wood flooring or ceramic tile instead. Low cost, incredibly easy to maintain and much easier on your health today's green building materials are as beautiful as they are sustainable. Other popular supplies include non-toxic paint, low EMF lighting solutions and natural insulation.

What's Not

Lawns. Pesticide, fertilizer, expensive water bills, costly lawn maintenance or machinery, pollution, noisy blowers and more are making lawns a thing of the past. As the nation turns toward environmentally friendly products, fewer people than ever are interested in pushing lawn mower or edger that causes 4 to 10 times the air pollution as an average family car! Blowers are a major source of noise pollution and also contribute to poor air quality. Pesticides, fertilizers and high water bills are not only bad for your health but terrible for the environment. Worst of all...homeowners are fed up with spending all their free time slaving to high maintenance lawns.

Carpet. More people than ever are switching to tile, wood, bamboo or other sustainable flooring solutions. Not only are they easier to maintain and durable but cost less in the long run since there is no need to replace every few years. Best of all, it is a fast way to improve the air quality in your home.

Incandescent Lighting. Even relatively newer homes may have been built with incandescent lighting fixtures - including recessing lighting. Not only are newer florescent and LED lighting alternatives more energy efficient but the bulbs last longer and look great.

Boston's Seaport District Loft Buildings

The Seaport District contains some of Boston's most coveted luxury loft developments, such as Channel Center, FP3 Lofts, Dockside Place, & the 21 Wormwood Street Lofts. Channel Center is one of Boston's most coveted new construction loft developments. It is located in the Seaport District, literally right over the bridge from the Financial District in Downtown Boston. There is a concierge, indoor garage parking, and a state-of-the-art fitness center. Condos for sale in Channel Center typically start around $450,000 for a 1 bedroom loft. Apartment rentals typically start around $2,300/mo. for a 1 bedroom condo. Apartments for rent can go up to $6,800 in the building.

The FP3 Lofts are located in the heart of the Seaport District by the Fort Point Channel. This ultra modern new construction loft development is one of the most coveted in the Downtown Boston area. Condos for sale at FP3 start around $375,000 for a studio loft. Apartment rentals typically start around $2500. Units for rent can go up to $10,000 for a 2-bed apartment.

The Dockside Place Lofts are located on Sleeper Street in the Seaport District. Condos for sale at Dockside Place start around $449,000 for a 1 bedroom loft. Apartment rentals in the buildings typically start around $1900 for a 1 bedroom. The Seaport District is booming, and there are plans underway for new restaurants, shopping, & entertainment nearby. The Financial District is nearby, as well as public transportation. The 21 Wormwood Street lofts are located in the heart of the Seaport District. Many of the units are incredibly large, and the largest being up to over 3000 square feet. Condos for sale in the building start around $339,000 for a studio loft. Apartments for rent in the building start around $1750 for a studio.

How to Find a Realtor

How to find a Realtor? This is one of the first 10 questions going round and round in your head when trying to close the perfect deal in a real estate business. Finding a good, experienced broker, or real estate agent is the number one rule for a successful real estate transaction. Many people find this objective a very difficult task, spending a lot of money just to get some "professional" advices regarding this matter. Is this really a solution? Do we like spending money on things we can do on our own? Well , actually yes we can. We can find a good Realtor, using our own abilities , without having to "buy" others advice.

First of all, let us understand the difference between a real estate agent and a Realtor. Realtors, are licensed professionals in this kind of business, belonging to the NAR( National Association of Realtors), enjoying every single facility this kind of job has to offer. On the other hand , real estate agents, or even brokers are not all Realtors, and some of them may not even own a license in the field.

How do we smell a Realtor in a garden of real estate agents? Simple, track the person's professional history just a bit. See how long has he/she been in the business, and what is his professional record? After getting this information, it should be pretty much clear who is who.

Moreover, try to contact ex-customers of his/her and ask them their personal opinion of the real estate transaction: are they happy with the deal? ; was it the right price?; did they buy it overpriced? A true Realtor does his best to satisfy his client, he must get involved in the transaction, as if he were the one buying it, he needs to analyze different possibilities, present them to the client, and also help him with his advices.

As far as finding one is concerned, the first solution would be the Internet. It provides entire lists of agents in web directories.

The second solution would be to attend some open houses, where you will be welcomed by real estate agents, getting the possibility to interact with them and get used to their methods of making you wish that house was yours. You also get the chance to see how buildings are evaluated and make an idea of how things work in real estate business. Do not hesitate to ask them every single detail related to their work.

If you happen to be in the neighborhood , take a closer look were the "For Sale" sign appears. This is the place where real estate agents wait for their clients.

Home Prices to Fall and Fall and Fall

I just read an article forecasting more trouble for real estate in 2009. The author seemed to be incredulous about the possibility, saying that some markets were even approaching Pre-Bubble price levels as though that was an organic impossibility.

If you check you will see that the last 2 real estate booms in the 70's and 80's resulted in prices dropping back to pre-boom levels before they took off again. That is what statisticians refer to as a "regression to the mean" falling back to the historic trend line.

There are even more significant troubles for real estate in 2009 and beyond than are perceived by many interested in real estate.

These troubles will continue to drive prices down even further. Although some markets are in fact approaching pre-boom prices, the pendulum may not stop at mid point and may actually swing all the way past pre-boom prices. Have you ever known a pendulum to stop mid way through its swing?

Here are some additional factors to consider:

The credit crisis is forcing banks to husband what little capital they have which is why they will restrict lending to the Very qualified.

How many prospective home buyers have 750+ FICO or Credit scores And 30% in cash for down payment, closing costs and bank mandated cash reserves? Especially since the US savings rate has been hovering around zero for the past decade.

Fewer buyers equal lower demand which means lower prices.

Also, how many more homes will be deserted by home owners who are Underwater, owing more than they owe? It is estimated that nearly 16% of owners with mortgages or about 8 Million home owners are in this situation. These desertions will add greatly to the bloated inventory of homes weighing down the market.

Finally, the only bright spot in housing will probably be extinguished in 2009 as interest rates will skyrocket once China is forced to stop buying our debt because of our dwindling purchases from them.

One report I read said that rental of a typical space on a freighter delivering goods to the US fell from $236,000 for the trans Pacific crossing to $5,000!

Once China stops buying our Treasury Bonds, we will have to lower prices on them to attract other buyers, which will jack up their yields or interest rates as they move inversely to prices.

Our mortgage rates will then soar because they are pegged to the 10 year Treasury Bond yield.

So, despite the optimistic predictions of many rose tinted, shade wearing real estate "professionals" the likelihood of a rebound in housing is probably further away in 2009 than at any time since the real estate bubble burst.

Types Of Real Estate - An Investor's Choice

There are different types of real estate, and different ways to invest in them. Which way is best is for you to decide, according to your particular needs. Here are a few ways to consider, with their advantages and disadvantages.

1. Rental houses. Advantages: One of the easier ways to get started, and good long term return on investment. Disadvantages: Being a landlord isn't much fun, and you typically wait a long time for the big pay-off.

2. Rent-to-own houses. Advantages: When you buy, then sell on a rent-to-own arrangement, you get higher rent, and the buyer is usually responsible for maintenance. Disadvantages: The bookkeeping is tricky, and most tenants don't complete the purchase (this can be an advantage too, but it does mean more work for you).

3. Low income rentals. Advantages: The same as with any rentals, but with higher cash flow. Disadvantages: The same as with other rentals, but with more repairs and tenant problems.

4. Fixer-uppers. Advantages: A quick return on your investment, and it can be more creative work. Disadvantages: Higher risk (many unpredictables) and you get taxed heavily on the gain.

5. Buy for cash, sell for terms. Advantages: You get a high rate of return by paying cash to get a good price, and selling on easy terms to get a high price AND high interest. Disadvantages: You tie up your capital for a long time.

6. Buy land, split it and sell it. Advantages: It is simpler than most real estate investments, with the possibility of great profits. Disadvantages: It can take a long time, and you have expenses, but no cash flow while you wait.

7. Boarding houses. Advantages: You can get a lot more cash flow renting a house by the room, especially in a college town. Disadvantages: You can get a lot more headaches renting a house by the room, especially in a college town.

8. Commercial real estate. Advantages: Long term triple-net leases mean little management and high returns. Disadvantages: Tough market to break into, and you can lose income on vacant storefronts for a year at a time.

9. Buy, live in it, and sell. Advantages: The new tax law means you can fix it up, and sell for a big tax-free profit after two years, then start the process again. Disadvantages: You have to move a lot.

10. Speculation. Advantages: Buying in the path of growth and holding until values rise can yield large profits, especially if you buy low to start. Disadvantages: Prices aren't that predictable, you have expenses with no income while you're waiting, and transaction costs can eat much of the profits.